Psychology question: What is Hindsight Bias and some examples?

What exactly is Hindsight Bias and what are some good examples? I am not understanding what this is, my psychology book doesn't give good examples or well enough explanation about it. Could someone explain it to where it makes sense?|||It's basically the "I knew it was going to happen".. You can hear a ton of examples of this at a local pub after a major sports event where you'll be hearing people talk about how they "totally saw that coming". It's like prophesy but after the fact.. :)





A CLASSIC example of Hindsight Bias is when someone says "It looks like it's going to rain" and if it DOES rain, they'll feel that their prediction was actually stronger than it really was when they said it. Then they'll brag about it.|||Hindsight bias is when it seems obvious that something was going to happen *after* it happens ... but it wouldn't have seemed so obvious before. So before the Duke vs. West Virginia basketball game, people might have said that they were only slightly confident (maybe 70%) that Duke was going to win. But after Duke wins, the same people say they were positive that Duke was going to win. Sometimes it's called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect. Or how about this? Your friend's boyfriend dumps her and you say, "Well it was obvious that was going to happen." But yesterday you wouldn't have predicted it at all. Note that this tendency can be very unfair in some situations. Maybe a judge or jury says that a shopkeeper should have known that his front steps were excessively slippery in the rain and therefore was negligent when a customer fell down and cracked his head. Well, it seems obvious that he "should have known" after the fal has occurred ... but it might not have beforehand. There is a common expression that captures this same thing and gives the hindsight bias its name: "Hindsight is 20/20."|||hi friend. i wanted to explain it but thanks to about.com you can read so clear about your question. just go here http://psychology.about.com/od/hindex/g/hindsight-bias.htm


have a nice time. Hasan from iran


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